If you live or work within the D.C. metro area, you know that one of the most hotly debated issues right now is whether there will be a government shutdown on October 1st, 2015. Probably even if you don’t live in the metro area you can’t avoid hearing about this question on the news shows.

What the Financial Analysts Say

On September 9th, the Washington Post published an article entitled Get ready: Experts say a government shutdown is likely.

After summarizing why a shutdown could be likely – basically Congress “using the budget process to push their ideological agendas on everything from abortion to military spending to international nuclear deals” – the author, Amber Phillips, consults with four congressional budget analysts to see how likely a shutdown really is.

You can read the article for the specifics, but let’s summarize the results by sharing:

who made the prediction
what their credentials are
what the percentage rating of a government shutdown is
why a shutdown is likely (the sticking point)

Phillips suggests at the conclusion of the article that the threat of a shutdown may spur Congress to roll up their sleeves and actually address all the issues. Ok – stop laughing.

What the Cards Say, Part 1: Choosing the Deck

Before reading Phillips article, we pulled out the very trusty Renaissance Tarot and used it to ask: How likely is a U.S. Federal Government Shutdown on October 1st, 2015?

We’ve been reading with the officially named Tarot of the Renaissance (Giorgio Trevisan & Pietro Alligo; Lo Scarabeo) since 2013.

We won’t go into a review of the deck here, but suffice it to say that this deck has proven very reliable in readings involving finance, power, and other business related matters. The deck delivers messages clearly, unambiguously, bluntly, but also at times with a bit of humor. And the cards were really accurate about changes on the horizon.

We mention these experiences in order to convey that, despite its pastel colors and almost imaginary Renaissance imagery, this is one astute deck for penetrating worldly affairs.

What the Cards Say, Part 2: The Message

When we ask a yes-or-no question of the tarot, we follow the tradition that four aces in the spread mean a yes while no aces indicate no. One to three aces indicate nuances that can be explored by the other cards in the spread.

On the morning of Sunday, September 13th, the spread yielded four principal cards: Ace of Cups; Ace of Pentacles; the Devil; and the Hanged Man.

The presence of these two aces and two major arcana cards in a half-half relationship suggests that energy is still very much in flux, though the energy is indeed rooted in issues that have come before and are cycling around again.

Although the cards indicate that no specific conclusion can yet be drawn, that does not mean that we have a 50/50 chance of a shutdown. Nor are we left clueless about what the cause of a potential shutdown is; nor how to avoid it.

The first two cards in the spread are aces, indicating the factors that would make a shutdown likely. The specific two aces drawn (Cups and Pentacles) suggest that thoughtful reasoning or careful thought about specific ideas do not, in fact, motivate the actions and words that might lead to a shutdown.

To the contrary, it appears that key players in the budget discussions are allowing their emotions (Ace of Cups) to dictate their decisions about money (Ace of Pentacles). This interpretation is reinforced because the Ace of Cups sits atop Temperance while the Ace of Pentacles covers the Five of Wands and Two of Swords.

Actually let’s explore this a bit more by looking at the specific imagery of the Tarot of the Renaissance.

This Five of Wands is similar to that in the Rider-Waite-Smith deck, though instead of many figures fighting with sticks, we see one figure backed into a corner readying himself to fight off unseen attackers. This card indicates a competitive feeling, directed towards the “little things,” rather than fighting over major issues. Petty disagreements in order to establish turf is the phrase that comes to mind. This is not to say that for some people the various issues surrounding the debate on funding aspects of the budget are not serious business, but it indicates that others are exploiting the disagreements and fostering discord in order to gain power, not with a view to solving the issue

The image of Two of Swords in the Tarot of the Renaissance amplifies this interpretation. Two men smile as they hold aloft their swords. The men are wearing different styles of clothing, possibly indicating that they are not on the same side; yet they are not hostile toward one another. In fact, they seem to be enjoying themselves. Perhaps it is only a game to them. Power, in this schema, resides in being in control of money, and the way to gain control is in the cynical manipulation of emotions, rather than rational debate.

From the first half of the spread, we would predict that we are in store for a lot of emotional language and posturing, especially from politicians seeking their party’s presidential nomination. The Two of Swords could indicate that members of both parties will likely indulge in emotional rather than rational debate of the issues, hoping to secure some extra support and love from their constituents. However, in the end, it is just posturing and the issues could be resolved satisfactorily.

So far, the message in the cards seems to reinforce the main thesis of the Phillips article, that ideological agendas are the underlying reason of why a shutdown might occur.

What to make of the second half of the spread? That smiling Devil and the Hanged Man? Having major arcana cards close out our spread, they likely offer a look at the “karmic” energies of the moment and how to avoid a shutdown. We use the word “karmic” to indicate that these are energies that have built up over years, are ones we’ve seen before during the last 30 or so years, and are prominent because their root causes have not been successfully worked through.

Look at that charming Devil, offering us a host of worldly goods and rewards. The temptation is to put short-term power gains ahead of long-term solutions to the very real issues the United States is facing. But, even more, he is encouraging us all to seek security for our mental and emotional unease within the material realm, while also implying that our financial situation is on the verge of chaos and only by making short-term extreme decisions will we be secure. This attitude surely is a major lure of the Devil: he encourages us to look for respite and solution to our fears primarily within the material world, which may not hold the solutions to our mental and emotional unease.

Alternatively, the Devil may represent a “Devil’s bargain” made to avoid a shutdown which could end up being a losing proposition for all concerned.

This is where the Hanged Man enters the picture. He reminds us that our current perspective or way of handling the situation may not be the most productive or fruitful. Clinging to the Devil’s perspective and promise of wealth and security, we’re actually (and literally) losing money and going nowhere. The Tarot of the Renaissance adds a bit of humor to the message: coins are literally falling out of the Hanged Man’s pockets!

The Hanged Man asks us to flip our perspective. Instead of looking for solutions to our fears (apparent dwindling dignity of life; an uncertain future full of unpredictable changes) in government policy and funding of the budget, we could (as individual citizens and those in leadership positions) adopt a civil attitude toward each other and converse in polite, measured tones over what the government is charged with doing: funding its operations.

The sky is most assuredly not falling, unless we base our actions on the false belief that it is. This spread suggests that our financial footing as a nation is really not all that bad, but our fears may lead us to act in such a way that may destroy our decent situation.

Verdict, for now

We project about an 80% chance of NOT having a government shutdown on October 1st. Even so, we wouldn’t wager on the capacity of the current leadership to make the required ‘flip’.

Update Saturday, September 26, 2015

The resignation of House Speaker John Boehner casts a whole new light on this reading. Which cards do you think would relate to him ? Is he the figure in the Five of Wands, fighting off the partisans of his party ? Is he the Hanged Man ? Is he the Devil ? None of the above ? A lot probably depends on your party affiliation. An interesting question to ponder.